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Looking For A Crystal Ball

Someone told me that Celoronis destined to become the new Bemus Point one day. The gentleman sharing that idea is a long-time local so I took some interest in his thoughts about the future of our lake neighborhoods.

I can envision his Celoron–another walkable village with a hotel anchoring the neighborhood, a few stores and restaurants and the gentrification of some of the streets. It’s accessible to the Lakewood hub of stores and conveniences. They’ve got waterfront and a nice park and a great sunset view.

I’m certainly not trying to oust Bemus as the prime tourist attraction, or displace any of the Celoronresidents in my musings, but as Chautauqua Lake tourism evolves, so will the neighborhoods. Summit Avenue in Lakewood has seen more than a few waterfront properties gentrified over the past few years to more modern, updated, and eco-friendly homes. It looks more like a suburban enclave in some spots than the kitschy, cozy, cottagey place we all know and love.

As much as I selfishly lament change in my column, I’m all for a healthy renaissance in Chautauqua County. We’ve watched Westfield undergo a metamorphis over the years and I believe we will see change and progress in many other county areas as time marches on.

We can all get onboard with good change.

But buying a house around our lake zipcodes seems to be a case of who you know these days or whether you’ve got a dozen realtors on speed dial. Houses that stay too long on the market seem to need a lot of work or they’re asking too much or both. People in the real estate industry say things have slowed down a bit, but try buying a house in Celeron. Not much comes on the market, and when it does, it disappears in a flash. What do folks in Celoronknow that we don’t?

Chautauqua County ranks in the top 10 real estate markets in the whole state. Between investors, eager locals, and outsiders discovering our piece of paradise, I don’t see this great slowing of the engines. And I pay attention.

My parents bought our Chautauqua Lake cottage back in the late 1960’s for $3000 from a relative. If that doesn’t make you wish you had a crystal ball, I don’t know what would. It was a great piece of waterfront property, too.

What is it about people that makes them think everything is always going to stay the same? I don’t remember my dad rubbing his hands together and thinking what a windfall he’d be in for if he just kept that place for fifty years. He took it for granted. He just didn’t have that crystal ball.

And neither do the rest of us–at least most of us. My grandmother’s family had a waterfront place in Lakewood while she was growing up. When I drive by it, I try to look the other way out of longing for family legacies. It’s a beautiful house. It makes me want to hang on to our own little place for our kids, and maybe their kids, but because they won’t know better, they probably won’t understand the long term possibilities. And it’s not always convenient or easy for a family to hang on to real estate.

As people are displaced from the rental and buyers’ market in Florida and most of America’s big cities, they’re looking for an easier, less expensive way of life. There’s a consensus that these economic and demographic trends may help small cities and towns to make a comeback this decade, but it doesn’t appear places like Lakewood need any help.

Realtors are seeing this trend. The National Association of Realtors reports that nearly twice as many millennials purchased homes in small cities or rural areas than in denser urban areas last year.

Another guy I ran into today was telling me his grandmother is paying her exhorbitant nursing home costs in New York City by slowly selling a group of seven houses she owns around the city, all worth many, many times more than when she bought them.

She had a crystal ball.

Most of us (looking at you, Dad!) missed those boats to lakeside real estate fortunes. But for all we know, a house here will be worth substantially more in ten or twenty, even fifty years. But that just sounds ridiculous, right? Surely, that’s never happened before.

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