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Playoff Hopes In Hands Of Goalies

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will need to improve from his meager .887 save percentage and 3.20 goals against average last year with the Sabres for any hope at the postseason. AP file photo

When Kevyn Adams first took over as the general manager of the Buffalo Sabres in the spring of 2020, he left much of the roster untouched, but after his first full season he began making trades and shaping the team in his vision.

That included the inevitable departure of cornerstone forwards Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart; the defense officially became Rasmus Dahlin’s and was reinvented going big with 2021 top-selection Owen Power; and he chose to go in a different direction than goaltender Linus Ullmark.

The Sabres have rebounded since trading Eichel and Reinhart with a forward group headlined by recently established star Tage Thompson, Baldwinsville native Alex Tuch, who has become one of the top two-way wingers in the league, and young talent such as Jiri Kulich and Zach Benson provide excitement with their potential.

Since dumping Rasmus Ristolainen, Buffalo has built one of the top defensive groups in the Eastern Conference around Dahlin who is just starting to hit his potential as a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman, scoring 68 points in 73 games.

Adams has avoided the bottom of the standings since taking over and the past few seasons in both 2023 and 2024 the Sabres narrowly missed the playoffs, while taking a slight step backward last year as head coach Lindy Ruff took over and further tinkered with the identity of the Sabres.

Newly signed free agent Alex Lyon will get the first crack at the starting goaltender job in Buffalo with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen injured. AP file photo

It is more than fair to say that Adams has done a great job retooling the forwards and defense during his time, but his self-inflicted goalie problem has cost the Sabres two trips to the playoffs and will hold them out again this season as it begins tonight blind in the future of the net.

If there was ever a season for the Sabres to seize an Atlantic Division playoff spot it was last year, but a 13-game losing streak and terrible play in net all year allowed both Ottawa and Montreal to leapfrog Buffalo in the standings.

This year should be easier as the old guard of the Atlantic has only gotten worse, but now Buffalo has to get back in front of the Senators and the Canadiens.

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Looking at the divisional leaders from last year, Toronto has become remarkably worse at forward while letting Mitch Marner walk for practically nothing in a meaningless trade to Vegas. Marner was Toronto’s top scorer by 18 points with 27 goals and 75 assists for 102 points.

There is no recreating the playmaking capabilities Marner brought, and the foolish expectation is that Matthew Knies will somehow fill that void, despite providing just a meager 58 points in a completely different fashion. Toronto should still be one of the top teams in the division, as long as Auston Matthews stays healthy, but they are definitely worse.

Tampa Bay is the only Atlantic contender to not get worse on paper, making it the clear favorite to win the division and be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. A lot of stock is put into a healthy Nikita Kucherov, but there is plenty of forward depth that makes the Lightning formidable.

While the reigning two-time Stanley Cup champion Panthers should be a lock for a top-three spot in the division, injuries will make it a tougher road.

Coming into the season the Panthers were without Matthew Tkachuk until mid-December, something they have proven to get through.

However, the best defensive center in hockey, captain Alexander Barkov, sustained a knee injury during training camp that will keep him out the entire season.

Florida will now look to Sam Reinhart as its top offensive talent and young players like Anton Lundell and Mackie Samoskevich are expected to take a jump with increased responsibility.

A veteran defensive corps and future Hall of Fame goaltender Sergei Bobrovski will have to keep Florida afloat until Tkachuk can return with some energy in the lineup, but the Panthers are looking more like a wild card team.

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After underperforming and finishing seventh in the division last year, Buffalo tinkered slightly with its roster to get back into playoff contention, giving up some offense for more help defensively.

The big trade was 27 goals and 41 assists from JJ Peterka for a big defensive defenseman in Michael Kesselring that finally gives Power a playing partner and shores up the Top 4.

The Sabres scored the fourth-most goals in the Eastern Conference last season, making it possible to ship out the second-best offensive forward. It also should help Buffalo from giving up 289 goals which was the second most in the conference.

Many fans — myself included — hoped the Sabres would make a move to fill the void that Peterka left in the top-six, but Adams feels confident in what Buffalo already has. Just like the McLeod trade, it could look like a Buffalo win very early if Benson makes a big jump offensively as he becomes a mainstay in the top-six, and Kulich should double his points from last year with more icetime sent his way.

However, the same promise that is kept with the forwards and defense does not ring true in net for Buffalo.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen played 55 games for the Sabres last year and took a major step back with a horrific .887 save percentage and 3.20 goals against average. James Reimer was plenty better, but still not reliable with a .901 save percentage and 2.90 goals against average.

While there were efforts to improve the Sabres elsewhere, once again goaltender will be the weakest part of this team as Luukkonen is expected to start when healthy again. Then, in the meantime, Buffalo will roll out Alex Lyon who provided a .904 save percentage and 3.05 goals against average in his only year as a starter for the Red Wings last season. Alexandar Georgiev was in the plans for a starter or backup role, but was waived earlier this week and Buffalo instead scooped up 25-year-old Colten Ellis from the St. Louis Blues on the waiver wire and he will get his first taste of the NHL with the Sabres.

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The Ottawa forward group and defensive corps stack up pretty evenly with Buffalo, but the main difference is that the Senators are reaping the rewards of a steady goaltender in Linus Ullmark.

While Ullmark has taken a step back from his best days with the Bruins, he is still able to provide a respectable .910 save percentage and 2.72 goals against average.

Then the playoff surprise last year, Montreal, boasts an exciting group of young forwards led by captain Nick Suzuki who scored 89 points and an inexperienced defense headlined by Rookie of the Year Lane Hutson.

On paper, the Sabres are better, but Montreal has already gotten over the playoff hump which is one of the most important parts in progression. The goaltending is closer to Buffalo, but the bright future is undeniable and will likely surge them into the playoffs again.

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With proven mediocrity and unproven castoffs in net, Buffalo falls short of teams like Ottawa and Montreal that have at least serviceable goaltending.

It is more likely the Sabres tread water and finish sixth or seventh with Detroit, while Ottawa and Montreal fit right in with Toronto, Tampa Bay and Florida as the Atlantic playoff teams.

The only hope for Buffalo to make the postseason is if the goaltending vastly improves, whether it is Lyon playing better than he did with the Red Wings, Luukkonen getting back to where he was two years ago, Ellis surprising as a rookie or even Devon Levi finally seizing a chance to be the starter after an early promotion from Rochester.

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