Jamestown residents – and some of their elected officials, too – should be paying close attention to the ongoing Dunkirk fiscal crisis.

Our sister paper, the Dunkirk OBSERVER, has documented the growing mess over the past several years. Dunkirk took a hit when the NRG power plant closed and took a large chunk of the city’s revenue, in the form of PILOT payments, with it. New York state helped plug the hole with transitional aid, but Dunkirk officials never transitioned after the closure of NRG and, when the state money ran out, so did Dunkirk’s financial luck. Now, the city is drowning in a sea of its bad decisions.

Most recently, the discussion has been whether or not to pursue a control board to help right-size the city’s budget. Ultimately, both Democrats at the state level and Dunkirk Mayor Kate Dowiasz opted for a second loan from New York state – though the city is unable to pay back a loan it received from the state last year. This second loan will be paid back by forfeiting the city’s $750,000 Aid to Municipalities funding for the next 15 years.

What does all this have to do with Jamestown? More than you would think.

Remember, Jamestown has been on the receiving end of additional state aid twice over the past 25 years as it tried to restructure its operations to be more sustainable. While Jamestown isn’t close to being in Dunkirk’s position, it has teetered a few times in recent history before righting the ship. Jamestown never needed loans from the state, but lobbied hard for additional state aid to balance the city’s budget.

But Jamestown faces many of the same issues as Dunkirk – with the exception of losing its biggest taxpaying entity. Both cities have growing costs for employee salaries and benefits that can make it difficult to take on new programs. The city’s loss of tax base in most years makes it impossible to pay for the same level of city services without tax increases on the remaining taxpaying businesses and homeowners. Poverty is high. Neighborhoods are struggling. It’s difficult to attract new businesses to fill storefronts. Were it not for federal stimulus funding Jamestown wouldn’t have had the money to undertake necessary infrastructure upgrades in city equipment that otherwise would have fallen on the city budget in a potentially back-breaking fashion. Importantly, the city has much-needed breathing room under the state’s constitutional tax cap, something that was a growing problem as recently as a half-decade ago.

As we’ve said consistently in this space for what feels like forever, Jamestown’s finances need a reset button that only a control board can provide.

Jamestown’s finances are not close to being the mess that Dunkirk’s are in 2025. Frankly, Jamestown’s have been bad at times but never that bad. But given Jamestown’s history of boom and bust budgeting, Jamestown’s due for a series of tough budgets at some point in the future that will require the state’s assistance.

If confronted with the decision of a control board or a high-interest loan, what would we choose? Jamestown and Dunkirk really aren’t that different. One city has gotten a little bit lucky financially, the other has spent the last few years walking with black cats under ladders. One day, the shoe may be on the other foot.