There is something special about watching a beautiful red cardinal on a morning before impending weather changes – birds and wildlife will seek safe refuge the next few days. Photo by James Monteleone

Winter has a way of reminding us of who is really in charge and this coming week in Western New York may be one of those outdoor moments we remember for a long time. After weeks of below-average temperatures, the kind that locked ponds and bays into safe ice and invited anglers onto frozen waters, the script is about to flip hard and fast.

This early week arrives with a different personality. Several inches of rain are expected, pushed by strong winds and warm air. Snowbanks will sag and surrender, and the ice that only days ago felt solid and trustworthy will begin to soften, rot, and retreat. Streams that usually whisper will roar. Lake Erie tributaries will swell beyond their banks, muddy and fast, making steelhead fishing not just difficult, but unsafe. Nature’s volume knob will be turned all the way up.

For deer hunters enjoying the social rhythm of New York’s holiday deer season, the timing couldn’t be more dramatic. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and rising temperatures will test patience and resolve. Deer will move differently or not at all. Trails will flood, fields will turn slick, and even the most seasoned woodsmen may pause at the edge of the forest and think twice. The season is open, but the weather may quietly suggest staying home.

Then, just as quickly as it changed, winter plans its return. Twenty-four to thirty-six hours later, temperatures are predicted to plummet. Arctic air will rush back in, and lake-effect snow will take over for several days. Roads will narrow, visibility will fade, and the landscape will once again transform – this time under heavy, wind-driven snowfall.

So, what does it all mean? Will safe ice become a thing of the past, at least for now? Very likely. Will sportsmen of all kinds — anglers, hunters, hikers — be forced indoors, not by lack of opportunity but by the need for caution? Perhaps. This is one of those weeks when enthusiasm must be balanced with respect, when experience matters, and when staying safe becomes the greatest skill of all.

Yet there is something oddly comforting about it too. This is Western New York in winter — unpredictable, humbling, and alive. Even non-sportsmen feel it. The sound of wind against the house, rain tapping the windows, followed by the muffled quiet of falling snow. It pulls families together, sparks conversation, and slows the pace just enough to notice the moment.

For some, the best plan may be the simplest one: stay put, stay warm, and celebrate New Year’s Eve close to home. Let the deer move unseen, let the streams rage unchecked, and let the snow fall where it may. The outdoors will still be there when the storm passes.

This coming week is not a setback, it’s a reminder. A reminder that winter is not something we conquer, but something we experience. And sometimes, the wisest outdoor decision is knowing when to wait.

Outdoors Calendar

Jan. 1: LAST DAY of the Holiday Deer Hunt for southern zone, muzzleloaders/archery only.

Jan. 1: First Day Hikes all around NYS. Visit https://dec.ny.gov.

Jan. 3: Clays for Cash, 100 sporting clay shoot, Hanover Fish & Game, 780 Overhiser Rd., Forestville, N.Y.

Jan. 3-4: Hamburg Gun Show, Hamburg Fairgrounds, $10 admission, opens 9 a.m. each day. Info: 716-542-9929

Jan. 6: Children in the Stream, Youth Fly Fishing program, free, Costello Room, Rockefeller Art Center, SUNY Fredonia, 7-8:30 p.m., 12 yrs old and older, info: 716-410-7003 (Alberto Rey). Jan. 13: