The New York Independent System Operators (NYISO) released an interesting white paper In January titled: Impact of National & Global Conditions on the Cost of Electricity in New York. NYISO are the folks who actually deliver your electricity, so they ought to know. The paper is objective, concise, and an easy seven-page read for anyone who is upset by high electricity prices and wants to know the factual reasons for the increase. If you don’t know the cause, how can you come up with the correct solution?

The second sentence in the paper sets the stage: “Over the last five years, according to analysis by Lawrence Berkley National Lab (LBNL), national average retail electricity prices increased sharply from 2019 to 2024, rising by 23%. But, as the LBNL report points out, electricity price volatility is a direct result of volatility in the market for natural gas.” This relationship between the cost of natural gas and the increase in the cost of electricity holds true not just for New York, but for every state that has a large dependence on gas for electricity generation.

I decided to test that statement and looked up the price of commercial natural gas deliveries in New York state since 2020. The data comes from the US Energy Information Administration. The average price for a thousand cubic feet of natural gas was $6.61 in 2020. By 2025 it had increased to $11.25, a jump of 70%. Since roughly half of the electricity used in New York comes from natural gas-powered plants, the cost of that gas has a big impact on the cost of your electricity, as NYISO clearly states. The average cost of electricity in New York increased 52% over that same period. For comparison, the price of commercial fossil gas deliveries in Pennsylvania has increased 39% while the price of electricity has gone up 32%. When the cost of natural gas goes up, so does your electricity.

There does not appear to be any relief in sight (and this was before we invaded Iran.) The NYISO white paper spoke of national and global conditions affecting the cost of our electricity explaining: “Heading into 2026, higher fuel costs are expected to persist.” The EIA identifies one factor behind rising natural gas prices that may contribute to sustained higher prices: the growth of gas exports. “Historically, natural gas was largely a domestically sourced product, with a network of pipelines enabling delivery across much of North America. Export capabilities were limited. Following a sustained period of increased U.S. gas production stemming from hydraulic fracturing, which led to significantly lower prices for natural gas, federal policy moved to facilitate the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to overseas markets.” “LNG exports in 2025 increased by roughly 26% compared to 2024 exports, growing to an estimated 15 billion cubic feet per day. For context, U.S. residential gas customers consume approximately 12 billion cubic feet of gas per day. In other words, the U.S. is forecast to export more natural gas than residential customers are expected to consume.”

A 2024 Harvard University research paper found that the “surge in LNG exports has reconnected U.S. gas prices to world market prices, after a hiatus of ‘shut-in’ fracked gas.” The ability to export gas overseas means producers can sell their product in more lucrative markets, placing upward pressure on domestic prices. The price of your electricity is increasingly tied to the global natural gas market.”

But that is only half the story. Your electric bill is roughly divided into two parts, supply and delivery. The supply (or generation) portion is directly tied to the cost of producing electricity. It is highly volatile because it is greatly affected by the cost of natural gas or other fossil fuels. The delivery portion covers the cost of getting the electricity from where it is generated to where it is needed. Delivery is expensive in New York because it is densely populated with lots of infrastructure (roads/buildings) getting in the way. Electricity is more expensive on the entire East Coast, not just New York. Our electricity is expensive primarily because of our geography and dependence on expensive fuel, not our environmental policies.

Does New York need more electricity? Perhaps, but it is likely to be needed downstate, so placing new generation plants upstate will incur expensive upgrades to the delivery system whether they are gas, nuclear, solar, or wind. This will, of course, increase the delivery cost portion of your electric bill.

Another misconception that recently appeared in these pages concerned battery storage. A BESS does not create electricity, it stores until it is needed, much like a pipeline stores natural gas until it is needed. A BESS is not meant to compete with a large CCS gas plant (or large solar farm), it competes with gas peaker plants. These facilities stand idle until needed to meet spikes in demand. Most of the peaker plants in New York operate less than 1% of the time (less than 4 days a year). They are meant to fill short-term ‘peaks’ in demand and improve grid stability. Approximately 78% of the 62 oil- and gas-fired peaker plants in New York State are at least 30 years old. The choice is not between building a new large generating plant or a BESS but between a BESS or a new peaker plant. Because of continuing rapid technological improvements, a new BESS can supply electricity 30% cheaper than a new gas peaker plant. A BESS can deliver its energy almost instantaneously without having to burn something expensive. Yes, BESS installations do provide a very big ‘bang for the buck’.

So the next time a politician tells you the answer to lower electricity prices is more fossil gas plants (or worse, repowering a coal plant with inefficient 70-year-old turbines), ask them what problem are they really trying to solve, and who are they actually serving?

Tom Meara is a Jamestown resident.