I noted some time ago in this space that wars are easy to start but difficult to end. Vladimir Putin is also finding out that they are hard to manage.

Recently, one of his primary underlings, a thug by the name of Prigozhin, broke ranks and for a day or two was advancing on Moscow with his troops called the “Wagner Group.” Wagner is the name given to a large force of private mercenaries who have undertaken strong-arm action on behalf of Russia in places like Syria and Africa. They had also, most recently, been the primary Russian force attacking Ukraine in the Bakhmut area.

The problem for Putin is that Prigozhin, a protoge of his who started his criminal enterprise under the guidance of Putin, got a bit “big for his britches” and resisted when his troops were told that they would have to become a part of the Russian Army. The Wagner Group despises the Russian military command and looks upon the Russian Army as second rate.

Putin probably could have controlled things if he had limited Wagner’s influence to special overseas operations. But, by giving them a leading role in attacking Ukraine…he emboldened them. Now, “the chickens have come home to roost.” The Russian leader created a competing force to his own military and, thus, is reaping the fruits of his own making.

It is difficult to say how all of this will play out. Putin over-played his hand, but Prigozhin and his Wagner Group also had to pull back. They just weren’t strong enough to take on the whole Russian military machine.

A sad thing about war is that it is not only cruel and devastating–it is also unpredictable. In his self-imposed isolation as the kingpin of Russia, no one seemed to be more surprised by the mutiny of the Wagner forces than Vladimir Putin.

Some commentators believe that Prigozhin is a “walking dead man,” and that it is only a matter of time before Putin takes him out. But, Putin, himself, is now tarnished in the eyes of his own people. As the Wagner Group marched on Moscow–Putin came out from hiding and made a direct appeal to the Russian people to resist. That didn’t embellish his strong-man, don’t worry, “I’m totally in charge” persona. He has now become more vulnerable politically.

Some prognosticators believe that all of this will help Ukraine. But, in my view, it is too early to tell if it will change anything on the battlefield. Ukraine, thus far, has not been able to crash through the bunkers, trenches and minefields that Russia has built in the eastern part of its country. Ukraine needs to push on for another 60-80 miles to the Sea of Azov and cut-off Russian land access to Crimea if its offensive is to be successful.

From the standpoint of the democracies of the world, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must be stopped and, hopefully, that can happen without it becoming a worldwide conflict that sucks everybody in. In the meantime, the war rolls on as a giant wave of unpredictability worrying and affecting all of us.

Rolland Kidder is a Stow resident and a Vietnam veteran.