SCHONDORF AM AMMERSEE, Germany – As a one-time teacher at a Bavarian school returns for a reunion, a conversation turns to a particular president of the United States.

A school employee engages the American and, speaking on her own behalf, is taken by the president’s many strengths, including the strength and popularity of his ideas. However, she adds:

¯ “Reden ist Silber. Schweigen ist Gold.” (Talk is silver. Silence is golden.)

¯ “Er schiesst sich selber ins Knie.” (He shoots himself in the knee.)

¯ “Er leidet an verbaler Inkontinenz.” (He suffers from verbal incontinence.)

There you have it.

Into a few sentences a German has basically and amusingly encapsulated the conflicting feelings of many Americans toward the 45th president: To put it simply, many like his ideas but not his style.

So those who, regardless of party affiliation, tend to vote for Republicans might want to begin to think ahead to 2024.

Why? Because the unofficial beginning of any presidential-election campaign is shortly after the midterm elections, which are only a year away.

Only one president has been elected to non-consecutive terms: Grover Cleveland in 1884 and 1892.

It’s no secret that Donald Trump has at least considered seeking to be the second such president.

Many issues are breaking Trump’s way. Think of border security, trade, and energy. Think of Trump’s successor’s shutting down a major oil pipeline in January 2021 and now, given the consequent rise in energy prices, asking other countries to increase oil production.

Then there’s inflation, which is becoming a factor in the United States for the first time in decades.

On top of that, take a drive around and notice all of the Trump flags. They’re flying from homes, businesses, and sometimes even vehicles. Many of the flags aren’t from 2020 but instead are Trump 2024 flags.

Can you name another time when a significant number of Americans have flown flags for a possible presidential candidate three years before an election?

Who does that? Ardent supporters do. And Trump’s base supporters tend to be ardent.

Yet it’s one thing to have an ardent base. It’s another thing to convince enough other people so that the candidate can win.

Among questions hanging out there are two that both Trump supporters and Trump opponents among those who tend to vote for Republicans should ask themselves: Given Trump’s style, and despite his ideas, would it be harder for him than for someone else to win the 2024 general election? If so, should the GOP nominate someone else?

This isn’t to suggest the answer to either question is “yes.” Rather, this is to suggest that the questions need honest answers, not result-oriented reasoning.

And please remember this: Trump ironically received a boost toward the 2016 GOP presidential nomination when the party increased the number of winner-take-all primaries.

In such primaries, whoever gets even a plurality of votes in a state’s primary takes all of the state’s delegates.

Given that system, a popular plurality candidate – Trump – could win an umpteen-candidate race for the 2016 GOP nomination when he might not have won, say, a two-candidate race.

If Trump is such a candidate in 2024, then 2024 Trump opponents among Republicans would do well to get behind a single candidate.

But whom?

Well, since 1950, when there has been no Republican incumbent, Republicans, with some exceptions (Eisenhower, Goldwater, Bush 43, Trump), have tended to nominate someone who has been vice president (Nixon, Bush 41) or has previously run for president (Nixon, Reagan, Bush 41, Dole, McCain, Romney).

If that pattern holds in 2024, at least three possibilities come to mind: Trump plus two Mikes – Pence and Huckabee.

For at least two reasons, it seems unlikely that Trump opponents among Republicans will get behind one candidate.

First, many people want to be president, so many are likely to run.

And second, different types of Republicans will initially favor different types of candidates.

Which could help pave the way again for … .

Yes, that’s right.

Randy Elf was Duke University’s first guest teacher at Landheim Schondorf, a Bavarian school in Schondorf am Ammersee.

COPYRIGHT ç 2021 BY RANDY ELF