Gov. Kathy Hochul has an idea on how to keep New York’s power grid reliable in 2035 by pursuing nuclear power generation.

It’s the best solution we’ve heard yet to have reliable, dispatchable electricity as it becomes pretty obvious that wind and solar power aren’t going to be able to keep up with New York’s growing power consumption needs. But David Leathers, Jamestown Board of Public Utilities general manager, hit the nail on the head during his recent remarks to the city BPU board when he said Hochul’s solution is 10 years away, but the state Independent System Operator has noted reliability shortfalls in some areas of the state coming in the next few years.

“I think the New York ISO has highlighted concerns that reliability is an issue that needs to be addressed,” Leathers said. “A nuclear plant that likely isn’t going to be operational for 10 years is not a near time solution to some of the challenges that exist in the state.”

Since 2021 NYISO reliability reports have noted that reliability margins are declining – including projected shortfalls starting this year in New York City with the pending retirement of several peaker plants that were to be taken offline. Those plants remain online until the Champlain Hudson Power Express transmission line from Quebec, Canada, to New York City is completed in 2026. Another reliability need was identified in the summer of 2033, but a decrease in projected demand has eliminated that shortfall for now.

Current statewide reliability margins in winter are sufficient, according to the most recent ISO Power Trends report, but if gas-fired generators cannot secure fuel during peak winter demand periods, statewide deficiencies could arise as soon as winter 2029-2030 under normal weather conditions.

“Simply put, as New York seeks to retire more fossil fuel units in the coming years it will be essential to deploy new energy resources with the same reliability attributes to maintain grid reliability,” the Power Trends report states. “Until new, non-emitting alternatives like hydrogen or advanced nuclear generation are developed and commercialized, fossil resources are needed to fill an essential role in preserving reliable grid operations.”

The solution seems obvious – keep natural gas plants open until reliable, dispatchable power production is brought online. But it’s important for Hochul and the state’s public power apparatus to articulate that clearly.