County Executive PJ Wendel’s 2025 budget proposal is an outlier compared to the cities of Dunkirk and, likely, Jamestown as well.

Dunkirk is proposing a 100% increase in its tax rate in the coming year. Mayor Kim Ecklund is already warning City Council members that the 2025 Jamestown budget proposal is going to be much tighter than the past few years. Compare those budgets to Wendel’s budget released last week that comes with a 19 cent decrease in the county’s tax rate and we can see why Wendel was smiling when he unveiled his more than $300 million spending plan last week.

How long can the county keep this up given the struggles its two cities are facing?

As we’ve noted over the past few years, it’s important to remember that the tax rate isn’t going down because the county is taking less of your money. The tax rate is going down because the value of assessed property throughout the county is going up. Wendel is right – that’s a good thing because it allows the county to spend more money without your checkbook feeling the pain. Former County Executive Vince Horrigan was right several years ago when he said the county couldn’t necessarily cut its way out of financial problems, it had to grow its way out of fiscal stress.

That’s what has happened under the watch of Horrigan, George Borrello and now Wendel, but it’s not wrong to question how long that can remain the case. Our worry is that at some point the gravy train of ever-increasing taxable assessment is going to come to an end. And it’s going to hurt when that gravy stops pouring.

The tax levy, the true measure of how much of your money the county needs to sustain its operations, is going up $1,894,339 in Wendel’s budget proposal. So yes, Chautauqua County will need more of your money to operate next year than it did this year.

At the same time, tax assessment challenges are popping up in the county. If big ticket properties see their assessments cut like Chautauqua Mall and some other big box retailers in the Lakewood area have, then that tax assessment growth that has fueled the county’s ability to pay for programs like the fly car program or increased safety net spending without too much hassle will slow. That’s when you’ll notice growth in the county’s spending and tax levy.

It’s good that Chautauqua County isn’t facing the budget problems it faced 10 years ago, when the county’s surplus was on pace to run out and a sales tax increase was almost a necessity. We hope we’re wrong, but in our view expecting continued growth is unrealistic. We have to be ready when the other shoe finally falls.