It appears the wish of many Republicans will come true — the 23rd Congressional District is likely to remain largely intact and continue to include Chautauqua County.

Assemblyman Andrew Goodell, R-Jamestown, noted as much in his remarks in favor of a redistricting plan brought forward by Republicans on the Independent Redistricting Commission. Rep. Tom Reed, R-Corning, said the same last week during a conference call.

“I am of the mindset that the Democratic control of Albany is going to produce a gerrymandered district for the Democrats. What that means is I’m very confident that our area in Western New York will be represented by a strong Republican member of Congress and it will become a guaranteed Republican seat,” he said.

Those who want to keep the 23rd Congressional District the same had better resign themselves to the fact that likely means the point of view they want representing them in Washington, D.C., is likely to be less prominent among the state’s Congressional Delegation. Currently, the state has eight Republican and 19 Democratic congressional representatives. New York is losing one seat following the 2020 census due to population loss. Democrats are willing to keep the 23rd Congressional District intact — to the general agreement of many area residents and the Chautauqua County Legislature — to the likely detriment of rural New York voices in New York as a whole. New York’s losing a seat — and it surely won’t be one represented by a Democrat. And, in the game of politics where he who has the most votes wins, keeping the 23rd District intact is a superficial wound Democrats are willing to endure in order to increase the greater proportion of Democratic Party voices New York has in Washington.

So be careful what you wish for when it comes to redistricting. The bird in your hand may not be worth two in the bush. It may just be a canary in a coal mine.