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Mixed Results: Cummins revises revenue guidance down; engine sales up

 Weaker pickup truck demand in North America is leading Cummins Inc. officials to revise its 2026 revenue projections downward.

The company's earnings per share missed Wall Street expectations by 3 cents per share while third quarter revenue of $9.4 billion missed prior targets by about $470 million. The news wasn't all bad. Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) in the third quarter was a record $1.8 billion, or 18.9% of sales, compared to $1.2 billion, or 14.3% of sales, a year ago.

Based on its current forecast, Cummins expects revenue growth of 10% compared to its prior guidance of 10% to 13% with estimated growth of 11.84% year over year. EBITDA margins are expected to be 18.2%, consistent with Cummins' prior guidance range of 18% to 18.5%.

“We have adjusted our full-year revenue and profitability guidance primarily due to continued weaker than expected pickup truck demand in North America, which impacted our third quarter and is expected to persist through the end of this year," said Jennifer Rumsey, Cummins CEO and chair. "Global power generation and North America heavy duty truck demand remain strong, and we expect fourth quarter revenues to step up from third quarter levels and set a new record.”

Third-quarter 2026 revenues of $9.4 billion increased 13% from the same quarter in 2025. Sales in North America grew 15% while international revenues, led by growth in China, increased 11%. Engine segment sales were $3.1 billion, an increase of 20% from 2025, while the Engine segment's EBITDA was $422 million, or 13.5% of sales, for the third quarter of 2026 compared to $261 million, or 10% of sales, for the third quarter in 2025.

Revenues in North America increased 21% and international sales increased 18% due to stronger North American truck demand and construction demand in China.

Net income attributable to Cummins in the third quarter was $1.14 billion, or $8.25 per diluted share, compared with $536 million, or $3.86 per diluted share, in 2025. In July, Cummins increased its quarterly common stock cash dividend from $2.00 to $2.20 per share. The company has increased the quarterly dividend to shareholders for 17 consecutive years.

In August, Cummins announced that its Power Generation business had been selected to supply battery energy storage systems for a large U.S. data center project, supporting utility-defined requirements for managing AI-driven load fluctuations, mitigating load oscillations and enhancing ride-through performance. The project will be the Cummins' largest BESS deployment to date.

Cummins also reported progress preparing for the launch of its upcoming HELM engine platforms. During the quarter, it completed the 2026 Forever Rising Tour, giving more than 500 customers and dealers the opportunity to experience its 2027 X15 engine, alongside the X10 and natural gas X15N engines. The X15 engine is built at Cummins' Jamestown Engine Plant.

"We delivered record EBITDA and earnings per share in the third quarter, led by continued strength in our Power Systems business," Rumsey said."Global demand for power generation equipment remains exceptionally strong, driven by data center buildout. While the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty truck markets strengthened, customer orders in the pickup truck market have weakened. I'm proud of our employees' focus on execution and confident our market-leading positions and broad portfolio will enable us to continue to deliver for customers, improve our financial performance cycle-over-cycle and return cash to shareholders."

Cummins was named as a World’s Top Disability Inclusive Business® for the sixth consecutive year, earning a top score of 100 on the Disability Index®.