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The state Independent System Operator sees a continued reliance on fossil fuel resources to maintain power grid reliability for at least the next 20 years.
Much has changed over the past three years since the 2023-2042 Outlook was published by the ISO. Federal actions have scrutinized and delayed construction of offshore wind projects and the state Public Service Commission withdrew the New York City Public Policy Transmission Need based on new challenges surrounding
offshore wind development. At the same time, renewable project development has slowed and recent state analyses have highlighted challenges in achieving CLCPA targets on the current timelines. The NYISO's reliability analysis has also identified emerging immediate reliability needs in New York City and Long Island, reflecting tightening system conditions driven by generator retirements and limited new entry.
What hasn't changed, in the ISO's eyes, is a lack of new zero emission technology that provides dispatchable and reliable power when needed.
"Notably, hydrogen-based generation could provide zero-emissions firm capacity and operational flexibility, but it is not currently available at commercial scale and would require significant investment in new infrastructure for fuel production, storage, and transportation, which does not exist today. Absent significant progress in the development of new zero-emissions technologies, continued reliance on fossil resources, including repowering and new additions, will be necessary to maintain reliability,” the Outlook 2025-2044 report states."
New York's electricity demand is expected to grow over the next two decades, driven by electrification and emerging large loads that increase total energy needs and reshape when and where demand occurs.
All scenarios for a reliable power grid through 2042 require significant new generation, and policy-driven scenarios require far more installed capacity than exists today to reliably meet demand, the ISO states in the report. Transmission capability is increasingly central to system performance, and the cost to create an emissions free power grid will be hardest near the end of the process. Planning scenarios that move from 95% to 100% emissions-free electricity require substantially more investment in replacement resources and anticipate technologies not yet available at commercial scale. By comparison, other scenarios that also lower emissions significantly do so with much lesser investment in generation and transmission.
"The System & Resource Outlook highlights the scale and urgency of the investments needed to reliably serve New York's future electricity needs," said Zach Smith, ISO senior vice president of system and resource planning. "Rising demand, generator retirements, and public policy choices all point to the need for new resources and stronger transmission. An all-of-the-above approach to energy development, supported by competitive wholesale electricity markets, will be critical to maintaining grid reliability through this transition."
The ISO is calling on policy makers to establish a viable path for developing firm, flexible resources needed to maintain reliability; to coordinate the timing of new resources, repowering opportunities, and retirements to reduce transition risk; to reduce congestion and increase transfer capability across the Central East interface through targeted enhancements; and and support zero-emissions generation development in Northern New York with bulk transmission upgrades that improve deliverability.
New power development needed ranges from 105 gigawatts of new capacity in a zero-emission power grid to between 30 and 60 gigawatts for a power grid with lower, but not zero, emissions. Less than 15 gigawatts have been added in New York over the past 25 years. The “limited” emissions model described by the ISO would use fossil-fueled resources infrequently on an as-needed basis to provide firm capacity, support system flexibility and reduce the need for large-scale deployment of alternative dispatchable resource types. In these cases, as the aging fossil fleet is replaced with new, more efficient generation, less emissions are created for each unit of electricity produced.
The Outlook also calls for transmission upgrades given the power demands downstate and the location of many renewable projects upstate. It calls specifically for transmission upgrades in northern New York, an area identified as an area with the potential for high renewable energy development that needs to be coupled with bulk transmission capability.
“Transmission development is central to enabling future resource additions to efficiently serve demand," the Outlook states. "While new generation is often developed where resources are most available, primarily in upstate regions, the highest demand and most constrained load centers remain downstate. As a result, system performance increasingly depends on the ability to transfer energy across the state, making transmission capability a key determinant of efficient system design.”