When it comes to gas prices, it could actually be worse here in Chautauqua County.

There are 12 counties with lower prices per gallon than Chautauqua County’s $4.000 a gallon, according to the AAA: Cattaraugus at $3.861, Steuben at $3.982, Chemung at $3.991, Schuyler at $3.986, Seneca at $3.918, Cayuga at $3.974, Wyoming at $3.986, Genesee at $3.979, Allegany at $3.977, Niagara $3.958, and Yates and Tompkins, each at $3.99. Residents in a majority of New York’s counties, though, are more per gallon than Chautauqua County drivers, with prices in some downstate counties as high as $4.36 a gallon in Hamilton and Essex counties.

The average price for a gallon of gas in Jamestown is 12 cents higher this week at $4.041, according to AAA East Central’s Gas Price Report. The national average for a gallon of regular exceeded $4/gallon this past week for the first time since August 2022. Monday’s national average of $4.11 is 12 cents higher than last week and 80 cents higher than a month ago. Crude oil prices have been surging, surpassing $100/barrel, as the conflict in the Middle East continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

In 2022, gas prices remained elevated from March through August, peaking in June when the national average reached a record of $5/gallon for one week.

According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), gasoline demand decreased last week from 8.92 million barrels per day to 8.68 million. Total domestic gasoline supply decreased from 241.4 million barrels to 240.9 million. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day.

At the start of Monday’s formal trading session, West Texas Intermediate opened at $112.32 a barrel. The EIA reports crude oil inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 461.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 0.1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

A top Federal Reserve official said Monday that an interest rate hike could be appropriate if inflation remains persistently above the central bank’s 2% target, the latest sign that some policymakers are moving away from a bias toward reducing borrowing costs.

Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said in an interview with The Associated Press that her general preference is for the Fed to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged “for quite some time.”

She also said the Fed might have to cut its rate if higher gas prices caused the economy to slow and unemployment to rise. But if inflation remained elevated, a rate hike could be needed, she said.

“I can foresee scenarios where we would need to reduce rates … if the labor market deteriorates significantly,” Hammack said. “Or I could see where we might need to raise rates if inflation stays persistently above our target.”

Hammack’s comments suggest a growing concern among at least some policymakers that inflation, which was elevated before the Iran war, may require rate hikes to tame further. Rate increases by the Fed would be a sharp shift from late last year, when the central bank cut its key rate three times. Rate hikes could lift borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, including for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards.

The government will update two inflation measures this week, though only one will likely reflect the impact of the jump in gas prices since the Iran war began Feb. 28. Gas prices averaged $4.12 a gallon nationwide Monday, according to AAA, up 80 cents from a month earlier.

On Friday, the government will issue the March inflation report, providing a first read on the impact of higher gas and energy prices. Economists forecast that annual inflation will worsen significantly, jumping to 3.1% from 2.4% in February, according to a survey by data provider FactSet. On a monthly basis, they expect consumer prices rose 0.8% in March from February, which would be the biggest increase in almost four years.

The Federal Reserve is required by Congress to seek low inflation and maximum employment, and higher gas prices could threaten both those mandates, creating a challenging situation for Fed officials. Consumers may react to higher gas prices by cutting back on their spending elsewhere in the economy, Hammack said, which could lead to weaker growth and layoffs, which the Fed would need to respond to with rate cuts.

How the war impacts the economy will depend on how long it lasts and how high it lifts gas prices and other costs, Hammack said. Now in its sixth week, the conflict has already lasted longer than she expected when the Fed last met March 17-18, Hammack said.

Hammack said rising gas prices stemming from the Iran war are “the No. 1 thing” she hears about from people in her district, which covers Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky.

“We know that causes a lot of pain personally, as it eats up a bigger and bigger share of people’s paychecks. So it’s important for us to stay focused on it,” she added.

The nation’s top 10 most expensive gasoline markets are California ($5.89), Hawaii ($5.50), Washington ($5.36), Oregon ($4.96), Nevada ($4.94), Arizona ($4.68), Alaska ($4.59), Idaho ($4.26), Illinois ($4.26), and Florida ($4.23), according to the AAA. The nation’s top 10 least expensive gasoline markets are Oklahoma ($3.27), Kansas ($3.33), Nebraska ($3.42), North Dakota ($3.43), Iowa ($3.48), Missouri ($3.48), South Dakota ($3.52), Arkansas ($3.52), Minnesota ($3.54), and Georgia ($3.70).

The Associated Press contributed to this report