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New York State Is 3 Years Behind Clean Energy Goals

New York is at least three to five years behind its goal to generate 70% of its electricity from zero-emissions sources.

That means the state won’t meet one of the main tenets of its 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act to generate 70% of its power with no emissions by 2030 and have electric generation be emissions free by 2045.

There have been warning flags raised at various levels about the state’s unlikelihood to meet its clear energy goals. The Public Service Commission report is one of the first times, however, that the warnings came from a state agency.

“The above deployment quantities are consistent with meeting the 70% goal by 2033 under the base case statewide electric load forecast or lower load forecasts,” states a recently released state Public Service Commission report. “If load does not increase at the rate assumed for the base case, it may be possible to reach the 70% goal earlier, or could offer opportunities to adjust procurement amounts to avoid over-procurement as appropriate. However, this report also considers the possibility that future statewide electric load may rise above the base case load forecast.”

The Public Service Commission gives many reasons the state won’t make its environmental goal. The report says supply chains for green energy projects remain stretched, driving up costs for materials and components. High interest rates and inflation are increasing prices for projects past projections – leading some developers to stop projects or the state to have to pay more to bring green energy projects online.

Another challenge is a global shortage in the global market for transformers, with many utilities having to wait up to two years for new transformers while prices have increased up to 900% over the past three years.

Results for solar projects have been spotty in recent years, according to the report, because of supply chain issues in China and difficulty navigating federal policies, tariffs, and anti-dumping laws on photovoltaics and aluminum components. Offshore wind has seen its own difficulties in recent years, with the state working to secure 9 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2035.

An issue that hasn’t been discussed is a lack of workers. The Public Service Commission says the state will need 258,000 wind energy workers, while the supply is only expected to reach about 134,000. That gap is expected to persist beyond 2030, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Similar gaps are reported in solar workers and solar photovoltaic installers. The state has committed more than $170 million to training programs for clean energy workers and another $100 million to partner with the private sector, academic institutions and training centers to train employees. The New York Power Authority is investing another $25 million a year to support the state Labor Department’s Office of Just Energy transition to support renewable energy workforce training.

A final factor in the state’s struggle to meet its 70% renewable power goal is an increasing electric load. “After two decades of stable electricity demand, the United States is projecting an increase in electricity usage in part due to data center expansion, clean tech manufacturing growth, and electrification efforts,” the report states. “New York state faces similar challenges as large load customers are expected to come online due to economic development and as electrification efforts continue to shape the State’s energy landscape. Load forecasts developed by the NYISO have been increasing steadily over the past few years.”

Earlier this year, state Sen. George Borrello, R-Sunset Bay, questioned Doreen Harris, NYSERDA president and CEO, if the state would meet its 70 by 2030 goal. Borrello noted the state has only added 12.9 gigawatts of new power over 25 years, with another 111 gigawatts needed to meet the state’s 2040 renewable power goals.

“This is just not achievable, it’s not practical. Also we’re throwing out our first and foremost reliable forms of energy like natural gas. There’s nothing in the CLCPA that says we need to eliminate reliable forms of energy like natural gas, which has a lower carbon footprint. But also there are things like RNG, green hydrogen, other forms of supply, increasing our capacity for hydroelectric power – New York state is, I think, number three in the nation now for hydroelectric power. Why are we one-trick ponies with wind and solar?” Borrello asked.

Much of upstate New York already gets the bulk of its power from carbon-free sources. In the areas west and north of Albany, nearly 93% percent of electricity generated and sold into the grid during 2022 came from nuclear power plants, hydroelectric dams, wind turbines or other renewables, according to the Empire Center for New York State Policy, compared to the Capital Region, lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long Island together only having less than 6% of its generation come from any sort of renewable source.

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