After years of competition, the race to bring the first full-scale casino to New York City is entering its final stage. Over the last three years, some of the gambling industry’s largest companies have pursued licenses to open in the city. Now, only four proposals remain, competing for three licenses, each promising billions in revenue over the next decade.

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Yet, the traditional brick-and-mortar casinos’ days are far from over, as seen in recent developments in the city. The New York State Gaming Commission is expected to announce its selections by December 1, with licenses issued by year’s end. Political and industry observers suggest that the two existing racinos near Manhattan may hold an edge. Resorts World New York in Jamaica, Queens, and MGM’s Empire City racino in Yonkers have been operating for years and already contribute significantly to state revenue. Both currently offer video slots and racetrack betting, but lack live table games such as blackjack or roulette. Granting them full Las Vegas-style casino licenses would allow these operators to expand quickly, while failing to secure licenses could heavily impact their businesses.

The other two contenders are Bally’s Bronx and Metropolitan Park. Bally’s Bronx is planned next to Bally Links in Ferry Point, formerly Donald Trump’s Trump Links golf course. Bally’s acquired the lease from the Trump Organization in 2023 for $60 million, and if granted a license, Trump would receive an additional $115 million. The project, led by hedge fund founder Soo Kim, proposes a $4 billion investment, including a 500-room hotel, 3,500 slot machines, 250 table games, poker rooms, dining, entertainment venues, and a 2,000-person event center. Annual revenue from gambling is projected to exceed $1 billion, with $200 million in taxes to the state.

Metropolitan Park, backed by New York Mets owner Steve Cohen and Hard Rock International, would transform the area next to Citi Field in Flushing, Queens. The $8.1 billion plan includes a casino, hotel, convention center, entertainment venues, public park space, and infrastructure improvements. The proposal features 5,000 slot machines, 375 live dealer tables, 30 poker tables, and an 18,000 square foot sportsbook. By its third year, the project is projected to generate $3.9 billion in revenue and $850 million in taxes annually.

Resorts World New York City, owned by Malaysian billionaire Lim Kok Thay’s Genting group, aims to expand its current facility at Aqueduct Racetrack into a $5.6 billion integrated resort. Plans include a 500,000 square foot casino with 6,000 slots, 800 tables, 2,000 hotel rooms, a 7,000-seat entertainment venue, conference center, restaurants and a spa. Last year, Resorts World generated $692 million from gambling machines and $284 million from off-track betting. Hip-hop artist Nas, who grew up in Queens, is supporting the expansion, adding a cultural tie to the project.

MGM’s Empire City in Yonkers has proposed a $2.3 billion redevelopment to expand its racino into a full-scale casino. The project would feature a 5,000-seat entertainment venue, 162,250 square feet of new development, and 9,300 square feet of meeting space. MGM aims to leverage its location and international brand recognition to recapture entertainment dollars flowing to neighboring states. Empire City generated $604 million in gaming revenue last year.

State Gaming Commission chairman Brian O’Dwyer has repeatedly emphasised that no proposal has an advantage. During a September meeting, he reiterated that the commission’s priority is to ensure that licensees demonstrate operational ability and integrity. “This is a tabula rasa,” O’Dwyer said. “There are no front-runners or favorites, and unfortunately, we are already seeing things in the media about who is in favor, who is not in favor.” He also noted that while the commission can issue up to three licenses, it is not required to approve any if the projects do not serve the public interest.

Analysts note the potential for massive profits. Chad Beynon, a Macquarie analyst covering gambling and hospitality, told Forbes, “New York is the biggest opportunity for years to come. Winning a license will put an operator in a market with one of the largest populations and highest wealth per capita in the country, potentially creating the best performing casino in the United States.”

Earlier attempts to place casinos in Manhattan failed due to community opposition. Projects proposed by Related Companies and Wynn Resorts near the Javits Center, SL Green and Jay-Z’s Roc Nation with Caesars Palace in Times Square, Stefan Soloviev’s Freedom Plaza near the UN, and a $3 billion proposal in Brooklyn called The Coney were all rejected by local communities or advisory committees. Las Vegas Sands also dropped its Nassau Coliseum project earlier this year.

With only weeks remaining before the commission makes its decision, the final four contenders, Resorts World New York City, MGM Empire City, Bally’s Bronx, and Metropolitan Park, are now under intense scrutiny. Each project promises to reshape New York City’s gambling scene while generating billions for the state, marking the first major expansion of the industry in the city.