As the 2025 NFL season approaches, optimism is muted for the Dallas Cowboys. According to Fox Sports’ latest odds, Dallas is listed at +5000 to win Super Bowl LX, placing them 18th among NFL teams in championship likelihood. Within the NFC East, they sit at +550 to take the division, trailing behind powerhouses like the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders.

These modest odds follow a disappointing 7-10 campaign in 2024. Most notably, the Cowboys struggled at home with a 2-7 record and fielded one of the league’s worst defenses, giving up 27.5 points per game, ranking 31st overall. These numbers, coupled with inconsistent offensive production, have left oddsmakers unconvinced of a quick turnaround.

Why the Doubt? Projections, Roster Changes & Betting Strategy

One of the clearest signs of growing skepticism around the Cowboys is their projected win total. Most major sportsbooks have set the over/under at just 7.5 wins, the lowest preseason line for Dallas in more than two decades. At sites offering the best online sports betting Texas fans can find odds of +260 on the Cowboys to win their opening game against the Eagles (-300), or +4900 for them to win the Super Bowl title.

But despite a talented core, roster concerns continue to weigh down expectations. The trade for wide receiver George Pickens was meant to add firepower alongside CeeDee Lamb, but the move barely budged futures markets. Dallas’s Super Bowl odds saw only a slight shift, signaling ongoing doubt from both oddsmakers and the betting public.

Personnel losses haven’t helped either. Future Hall of Fame guard Zack Martin retired, and veteran pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence exited in free agency, two major blows to units that were already underperforming in 2024. While the defense regains Sam Williams and still boasts star linebacker Micah Parsons, depth and consistency in the secondary remain unresolved issues heading into the season.

What the Markets Say: Playoff Path & Futures Breakdown

The broader betting markets echo the uncertainty. Dallas is roughly +650 to win the NFC, and sportsbooks have priced them at +5000 to take the Super Bowl. ESPN and other betting analysts list the Cowboys at similar odds, often tied with mid-tier teams like the Dolphins and Browns.

More detailed futures markets offer a clearer breakdown of what oddsmakers expect. At DraftKings, the Cowboys are around -235 to miss the playoffs altogether. A wild-card round exit is priced at +425, while a divisional-round exit is at +850. The odds get steeper from there, with +1900 for a conference championship loss, +5500 for a Super Bowl loss, and +6000 to win it all.

This paints a picture of a team that’s expected to hover near playoff contention but fall short of meaningful postseason success–unless there’s a dramatic improvement during the season.

Outlook & Catalysts: Can Dallas Defy the Odds?

Despite the low expectations, the Cowboys still have reasons for optimism. CeeDee Lamb continues to rank among the league’s elite receivers, and quarterback Dak Prescott remains one of the NFL’s more consistent signal-callers when healthy. With new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer in charge, the offense may adopt a fresh identity that plays to Prescott’s strengths.

Defensively, Micah Parsons is a game-changer, and the return of Sam Williams could revitalize the front seven. If Trevon Diggs stays healthy in the secondary, Dallas could significantly improve on last year’s dismal defensive numbers.

The Cowboys will face a tough 2025 schedule, including eight teams that made the playoffs last season. But if they can flip close losses into wins, a major issue in 2024, their record could swing in the right direction.

At the same time, they’ll have to overcome the loss of veteran leadership. Zack Martin’s retirement leaves a huge void in the offensive line, and DeMarcus Lawrence’s absence will put more pressure on younger pass rushers. These gaps could impact both pass protection and run-stopping capabilities, which were already concerns last season.

In the NFC East, Dallas faces stiff competition. Philadelphia is still the class of the division, and Washington has gained steam in betting markets. With Dallas stuck at third in divisional odds, their path to the postseason will likely require a wild-card berth, not a division title.

Risky Longshot With Some Upside

At +5000 odds and a projected win total under eight games, the Cowboys are one of the league’s longer shots to make a deep postseason run in 2025. Bettors and analysts alike see them as a team with potential, but one that must overcome several obstacles, both on the field and within their own organization.

Still, for those hunting value, Dallas offers some upside. With a strong core, improved coaching, and a little luck on the injury front, they could make a push. Dallas has the tools, but until they prove it, expectations will remain tempered.