Compare Votes To Historical Trends

America’s major political parties are continually shifting alliances of voters.

What Democrats and Republicans have historically been isn’t what they are today.

Likewise, Americans’ affinities for the major political parties are continually shifting.

Please don’t take the word of today’s column, which was deliberately written and submitted before Election Day, because the election results don’t affect today’s column.

As the dust settles from the 2020 election, watch for yourself to see who voted for whom and compare that to historical trends. Among the groups of voters that may be worth watching are these:

¯ States: Which states voted differently for president than they’ve tended to vote in recent elections?

¯ Men and women: However votes in presidential elections break down, Democrats usually do better than Republicans among women, and Republicans usually do better than Democrats among men.

What do the 2020 results show?

¯ New Voters and 2016’s New Republican Voters: Among those voting for President Trump in 2016 were many who had never voted, and many who had voted for president yet never for a Republican. In 2020, the president’s campaign said many attending Trump rallies had never voted, not even in 2016.

What do the 2020 results show?

¯ Blue-collar voters: Over recent decades, many blue-collar voters have supported both Democrats and Republicans for president. With fair-trade policies – more on those below – the president has reached out to them.

What do the 2020 results show?

¯ Latinos: Democrats have outpolled Republicans in presidential elections among Latinos, a relatively new yet growing group of American voters. Latinos are, of course, not a monolithic bloc, and the parties’ performances among Latinos has varied among Latinos from different places and living in different places in the United States.

What do the 2020 results show?

¯ Blacks: In recent decades, Democrats have outpolled Republicans among blacks in presidential elections. Blacks are, of course, also not a monolithic bloc, notwithstanding 2020 Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden’s statement that blacks, unlike Latinos, lack diversity. While President Trump has significantly reached out to many groups of voters, he has made particular efforts to reach out to blacks.

What do the 2020 results show?

¯ Never Trumps: There have been Never (fill in the blanks) regarding every major-party presidential candidate. In that sense, Never Trumps are nothing new.

The main question for Never Trumps may be not how they voted but where they go from here.

This column on more than one occasion urged the president to stay on message and explained that but for unforced communication errors, his re-election may well have been a cinch, given the administration’s accomplishments.

To the extent that Never Trumps object to unforced communication errors, Never Trumps may be inclined to return to the Republican fold in the next presidential election.

However, to the extent that Never Trumps object to the policies of Republicans in general, Never Trumps may consider other options.

After all, the president has moved Republicans toward fair trade, border security, and using American military power to defend our vital national interests without being the world’s police department.

Just as these attract some voters, they repel some Never Trumps.

Nevertheless, this columnist in 2016 urged Never Trumps to support the president for multiple reasons, none greater than the Supreme Court.

Never Trumps disregarding this either (1) like judicial activism, (2) don’t care, (3) don’t care enough, or (4) thought they could rescue the court soon in another presidential election.

While reasons (1), (2), and (3) were and are mistaken as a matter of jurisprudence, reason (4) was and is likely mistaken as a matter of, well, reality.

As this column explained last week: Because President Trump won in 2016, the Supreme Court has six originalists and three activists. Had he lost in 2016, the court likely would have had three originalists and six activists, a challenge that likely would have been hard to overcome in another presidential election soon.

Dr. Randy Elf’s 2016 column on Never Trumps is at https://www.observertoday.com/opinion/commentary/2016/10/you-re-not-just-voting-for-president and https://www.post-journal.com/opinion/local-commentaries/2016/09/never-trump-movement-is-nothing-new.



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