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Watch This Republican Primary

Across the country, primaries involving the Republican Party’s two main flanks are fairly common.

Those involving such names as Taft and Eisenhower, Goldwater and Rockefeller, Reagan and Ford, Reagan and Bush 41, Huckabee and McCain – and many more – come to mind.

Pick whichever labels you like for the two flanks. One flank reflects the conservative movement, and the other flank doesn’t.

Republican primaries happen in New York, yet state law in effect discourages them, because of the possibility that different candidates will win the Republican and Conservative primaries.

Unless the parties can afterward solve the challenge that creates – and there are ways to do that – then Republicans and Conservatives will have different candidates on the general-election ballot. The chance of one of them winning the general election against a Democrat is then diminished.

It’s possible, yet the chance is diminished.

When a Republican primary occurs, it sometimes follows from the Republican and the Conservative committees’ not agreeing on a candidate.

And when the Republican primary candidates come from the two flanks of the Republican Party, the contest can be philosophically spirited.

Which brings us to the June 23 contests for the New York congressional district that – from west to east and north to south – includes parts of Niagara and Erie counties; all of Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming, and Livingston counties; and parts of Monroe and Ontario counties.

This is one of the larger congressional districts in New York, and it’s the most Republican congressional district in the state.

Somehow, some way, the district’s boundaries will change in 2022, because of reapportionment following the 2020 census. For now, the boundaries are as they’ve been since 2012.

Two elections are set for June 23 for this district.

¯ One is a special-general election to fill the seat for the rest of the current term. The major-party candidates are Nate McMurray, D-Niagara County, and Chris Jacobs, R-Erie County.

County Republican committees from across the district were divided over whom to endorse.

Jacobs had the backing of the Erie County GOP committee. Although Erie County is the biggest fish in the pond, that’s not enough to prevail.

Yet with sufficient support from elsewhere, Jacobs received the GOP endorsement over Stefan Mychajliw (pronounced muh-HOI-loo), R-Erie County, Beth Parlato, R-Erie County, and others.

Mychajliw and Parlato are from the flank of the Republican Party reflecting the conservative movement, and Jacobs is from the other flank.

For the June 23 special-general election, the Conservative Party is endorsing no one. The Conservative line on the ballot is blank.

¯ The other June 23 election is a Republican primary to run in the November general election against McMurray for a full term starting in January. The primary candidates are Jacobs, Mychajliw, and Parlato.

Consider this: Could Mychajliw and Parlato together receive more votes than Jacobs? Could Jacobs nevertheless win the primary with a plurality?

Or does another factor swing votes from Jacobs? For November, the Conservative Party is endorsing Parlato. There’s no Conservative primary, so as of now, she’ll have the Conservative line on the November ballot no matter who wins the Republican primary.

When one looks past all of the campaigning, the Republican primary comes down to a battle for the philosophical direction of the party in the most Republican congressional district in New York.

And unless a Democrat wins in November – which is usually hard in such a Republican district but would be less hard with Republican and Conservative endorsements divided – the result will affect the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives.

So watch this primary.

The result will reverberate way beyond Western New York.

Randy Elf explored seeking the Republican and Conservative parties’ nominations for attorney general in 2018.

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