Those who heat their homes with electricity should get ready to pay a lot more for electricity this winter.

The New York Independent System Operator is warning of a sharp rise in wholesale electric costs expected this winter due to several economic and geopolitical factors that continue to impact the market cost of natural gas used in the production of electricity. The ISO released an updated white paper on electricity prices on Tuesday in an effort to prepare consumers for the winter home heating season.

The NYISO’s report, Impact of National & Global Conditions on Electricity Prices in New York, sources and incorporates material from the Energy Information Administration, state Public Service Commission, U.S. Department of Labor and Power Trends, the NYISO’s annual state of the grid report. The white paper is intended to help serve and educate consumers, the media and market participants, and will be updated as conditions and data change.

Heading into this summer, the federal Energy Information Administration projected the price of natural gas delivered to electric generators to average $8.81/MMBtu this summer, up from $3.93/MMBtu last summer. Actual prices, according to the EIA, were a little less, averaging $7.28/MMBtu.

A similar price is expected throughout the winter — meaning prices aren’t expected to get worse, but are still nearly double the natural gas prices delivered to electric generators in the summer of 2021.

“Fossil fuel costs have risen dramatically in the past year due to economic factors rooted in the pandemic and amplified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Spiking global demand for fossil fuels, lagging supply, and global instability caused by war, have combined to bring fossil fuel prices to historic high levels. While consumers might expect these conditions to impact the cost of gasoline, many have been surprised by the degree to which these fossil fuel prices have found their way into electricity bills as well,” the NYISO white paper states.

Driven by international conditions and forecasted winter demand, published NYMEX electricity price futures for this winter have increased four-fold over last year, with prices averaging near $200/MWh,” the NYISO white paper states. “These futures prices are driven by natural gas futures prices for the upcoming winter, which are more than double current pricing levels to nearly $20/Mbtu.”

National Grid recently forecast higher prices across the state to increase 28% or 29% in Long Island and New York City service areas compared to last winter’s prices. As is the case with the NYISO white paper, the increase n prices is due in part to delivery price increases and increasing costs for natural gas.

“We recognize that higher energy prices will add to the financial burden for our customers who are struggling with higher costs at the grocery store, gas pump and elsewhere,” said Melanie Littlejohn, National Grid’s New York Vice President for Customer and Community Engagement. “Our commitment is to support our customers by helping them stay warm and safe this winter. National Grid has numerous assistance programs available, as well as energy saving strategies, resources and tips.”

Earlier this year, National Fuel Gas increased its gas supply charge in Pennsylvania, with most customers seeing a $22.98 increase in their monthly bills.

The rate adjustment is primarily due to higher market prices for natural gas, which have increased the cost of natural gas supplies that National Fuel purchases for customers. Gas supply costs are passed along to customers without mark-up or profit to National Fuel. Pennsylvania utility companies are permitted to update gas supply charges on a quarterly basis to reflect changes in the market price of natural gas. Market prices for natural gas have increased significantly due to several domestic and global factors that have impacted both the supply and demand of the commodity. The next opportunity to adjust gas supply charges in Pennsylvania will be Nov. 1, 2022.

In New York, the residential price of natural gas has increased $2.58 per 1,000 cubic feet from May 2021 to May 2022, the last update available through the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. Commerical natural gas rates have seen a similar increase while industrial natural gas prices have increased even more.