×

County Hopes To Continue Trend As Bellwether

As the 2020 Presidential Election approaches on Tuesday, Chautauqua County has a long history of accurately picking the winner. P-J photos by Cameron Hurst

Bellwether.

Defined as “an indicator or predictor of something,” it’s one of the many buzzwords or phrases thrown around with ease at this time of year — many times in the same breath as “swing state” and “red state” or “blue state.”

But its accuracy toward describing Chautauqua County’s political trend in an election year is not too much of a stretch — a majority of county residents have voted for the eventual winner of 10 of the last 12 presidential campaigns.

The county’s only misses came in the 1976 and 2012 presidential elections, with a majority voting for Gerald R. Ford and Mitt Romney, respectively, in those campaigns. But, from 1980 to 2012, the county was a perfect bellwether, voting for the eventual president-elect in each of those elections. It became one once again in 2016, with Donald Trump carrying 62% in the county over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Election Commissioner Norman P. Green has long said that the county’s representation is closer to the more moderate state of Ohio — which has accurately voted for the winner in every election since 1964 — than it is to the more liberal state of New York, which has not given its electoral votes to a Republican since 1984.

“It’s the midwestern influence just like the state of Ohio is a bellwether state,” he told The Post-Journal this week. “We have that midwestern influence in that people are willing to vote for what they think and who they think is the best candidate.”

Indicative of that trend is the split ticket representation the county saw during that period in down-ballot elected offices — the combination of Jess Present, Patricia McGee and Catharine Young, all Republicans, served as the region’s representative in the state Senate during the same era that Rolland Kidder and William Parment, both Democrats, represented the county in the state Assembly.

“Even though as of late, it feels like it’s a red, red county, it has no problem voting for a Democrat,” Green said. “Patrick Swanson is the current District Attorney and he won in a year the Republicans mostly won. Over the years you would see Bill Parment as a Democrat winning at huge margins and Cathy Young winning at huge margins. People have no problem dipping down and dipping up.”

Still, the county leans “red,” something that Green attributes to those concerned over their second-amendment right.

“We’re a hunting county — the subject of guns is a big deal to people,” said Green, who also serves as the chair of the county’s Democratic committee. “Good Democrats have said, ‘need to become a Republican because Democrats want to take away my guns.’ Local Democrats don’t want to do that. I’m a Democrat and I’m pro-2nd Amendment.”

Several years ago, in a rare occurrence, the county had the exact same amount of registrations for both Democrats and Republicans.

“But obviously the county has become a little bit more ‘Red,'” he added. “There’s about 2,000 to 2,500 more Republicans registered than Democrats. There are those that will say, ‘I’m a Democrat and I don’t vote Democrat,’ or ‘I’m a Republican and I don’t vote like a Republican.'” The truth is that if you’re registered Democratic, if you’re a registered Republican: four years ago, we were dead even.”

Still, a Democrat has not won 55% of the county’s vote since Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in 1996 — Barack Obama carried Chautauqua County with just 50.4% in 2008. Four years later, the county’s backing of Romney by 4,000 votes started a trend that Republicans and supporters of President Donald Trump — who became the first candidate to receive over 30,000 votes in Chautauqua County since George Bush in 2004 — hope will continue on Tuesday.

“Romney is the one that you look at and say, ‘That was a year that Obama won re-election,'” Green said. “He didn’t win the county by that much. That was a tight race. In the fact that the county voted for Trump, and he got elected: the county again was a bellwether county when you voted for Trump. They just missed being a bellwether county in the re-election of Obama in 2012.”

Still, should Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden prevail on Tuesday – or in the weeks after — one thing is clear to Green about Chautauqua County.

“It’s an intelligent voter base that is willing to vote and willing to examine the candidates and vote how they think is best regardless of affiliation,” he said.

Newsletter

Today's breaking news and more in your inbox

I'm interested in (please check all that apply)
Are you a paying subscriber to the newspaper? *
   

Starting at $4.62/week.

Subscribe Today